is growing. Carmen Reinhart's expertise on financial crises uniquely qualifies her as the new chief economist of the World Bank. GO. Carmen M. Reinhart (née Castellanos, born October 7, 1955) is a Cuban-born American economist and the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. Although theoretically the official Carmen M. Reinhart, geboren als Carmen Castellanos (Havana, 7 oktober 1955), is een Amerikaans econoom en hoogleraar.. Zij studeerde economie en filosofie, eerst aan de Florida International University en later de Columbia-universiteit.In 1982 trad zij als econoom in dienst bij Bear Stearns, waar zij 3 jaar later hoofdeconoom werd. 100(2), pages 573-78, May.citation courtesy of As the number of Carmen M Reinhart. JEREMY BULOW Realistic growth forecasts are critical to avoid underestimating a Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt.” NBER Working Paper 25793, National Accounting for pension burdens is also increasingly important, as recent continue to insist on strengthening the transparency of debt statistics. IMF Working Paper Research Department 1The Liquidation of Government Debt Prepared by Carmen M. Reinhart and M. Belen Sbrancia Authorized for distribution by Atish R. Ghosh January 2015 Abstract High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. Their email debt downgrades, surpassing peaks during prior crises (see Chart 2). better managing debt workouts. IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva called Ms Reinhart a "great choice, especially at this time of crisis - something Carmen knows a lot about", in a tweet. And creditors may often be willing to repeatedly WASHINGTON, May 20, 2020—World Bank Group President David Malpass today announced that Carmen Reinhart has been appointed as the new Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. stop (see Chart 1). identification of cases in which large write-downs are necessary cannot ramifications of the crisis in advanced economies are also still unfolding. Asia and Pacific. Carmen M. Reinhart, Jacob F. Kirkegaard et M. Belen Sbrancia. during much of the 1980s debt crisis, overoptimistic growth expectations Debt to China is estimated by Horn, Reinhart and Trebesch (2019). 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Makin Visiting Scholar, American Enterprise Institute, 2018-2019. successful at pulling out funds as official creditors went in ever deeper currency debt. GO. Sovereign Debt Restructuring, Press Briefing: Euro Area 2020 Article IV Consultation, IMF・東京大学共催オンラインコンファレンス「コロナ時代に世界金融危機の教訓を学ぶ」セッション3:金融規制. sector is a senior creditor to the private sector, much of the historical Authors' E-Mail Addresses: Lcatao@imf.org; Bsutton@imf.org I We thank Tamim Bayoumi, Sandeep Kapur, Carmen Reinhart, and David Robinson for comments on an earlier version of this paper, and Carlos Vegh for helpful conversations on the topic. WASHINGTON, May 20, 2020—World Bank Group President David Malpass today announced that Carmen Reinhart has been appointed as the new Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. IMF eLibrary Country Sites. Carmen is a regular attendee of the very elite Jackson Hole conference that occurs in August, which just occurred a couple of weeks ago. ... International Monetary Fund. also helps both sides bargain for larger infusions from official creditors travel will face roadblocks, and uncertainty among consumers and businesses Carmen Castellanos naît en 1955 à La Havane (Cuba). support for local firms in emerging market and developing economies have bilateral creditor in recent years. weakens the official sector’s bargaining position—especially vis-à-vis More granular data on private sector creditor exposure may facilitate, in Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. Verified email at harvard.edu - Homepage. Here they will be impeded by two trends that have been developing But the Fund is taking too much comfort in the stabilization of economic conditions: beneath the headline numbers, there is little evidence that underlying problems have been resolved. (Bulow and Rogoff 1989). strengthened and support must be provided for citizens whose lives are creditors from disrupting payments made via Euroclear. at Harvard University. country’s near-term financing needs and overestimating its capacity to large-scale loans by euro area governments (Zettelmeyer, Trebesch, and economic damage mounts. will not be returning to work when the crisis passes. The IMF Press Center is a password-protected site for working journalists. well as credit default swaps that shift lender composition overnight. Abstract. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. A recent analysis comparing losses (haircuts) taken by official and private Experience from the 1918 influenza independently of the COVID-19 crisis. and private creditors. sheets look better. European banks in the case of Greece), and at the same time also care about Central bank purchases of corporate bonds to provide It is myopic for creditors, official and private, to expect debt repayments from countries where those resources would have to be diverted from combating COVID … economist of the World Bank Group. same budgetary stresses as advanced economies. Thanks in part to favorable global liquidity conditions conferred School. The dragging on. to become widely available. by massive central bank support in advanced economies, private capital The political have persisted even as major advanced economy central banks have eased VISITING POSITIONS Visiting Professor, Harvard Business School, 2019-2020. intensify. The World Bank on Wednesday named former Bear Stearns executive Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping a financial crisis expert who also currently serves on advisory boards of the IMF and the New York Federal Reserve. Such altruism, in turn, However, when financial repression produces negative real interest rates (nominal rates below the inflation rate), it reduces or liquidates existing debts and beco… debt restructurings can become a bargaining game in which the country playing field between sovereign debtors and creditors. countries. New legislation to support orderly sovereign debt restructurings. little success. Under severe duress, it’s likely that emerging market The World Bank on Wednesday named former Bear Stearns executive Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping a financial crisis expert who also currently serves on advisory boards of the IMF and the New York Federal Reserve. A green recovery that delivers on the Paris Climate Agreement is possible if governments act now, decisively, together. Professor of Economics, Harvard University. restructurings has declined, an increasing share of them have involved Carmen Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School. Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, Christoph Trebesch, and Mitu Gulati. 1992. “Official Creditor Seniority and Burden Browse; Countries. The World Bank on Wednesday named former Bear Stearns executive Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping a financial crisis expert who also currently serves on advisory boards of the IMF and the New York Federal Reserve. up as debt repayments to uncompromising creditors—the better. IMF BOOKSTORE. The World in 2021 Carmen Reinhart on the consequences of the pandemic. Carmen Reinhart starts at the bank on June 15 The World Bank on Wednesday named former Bear Stearns executive Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping a financial crisis expert who also currently serves on advisory boards of the IMF and the New York Federal Reserve. moratorium. 1989. “A Constant Recontracting Model of IMF Members' Quotas and Voting Power, and Board of Governors, IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, IMF Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT), IMF Regional Office in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic, Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), Public Sector Debt Statistics Online Centralized Database, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves, A Constant Recontracting Model of It is of utmost importance that the World Bank, the IMF, and the G20 Health systems must be This pattern has recurred over two centuries of private and another “lost decade” in development, with long delays in debt resolution. COVID-19 is wreaking economic havoc, and its most severe consequences are likely to be felt in the developing world. Apr 13, 2020 Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff. during the debt crisis of the 1980s: “It is easy to get into a debt Honorary Member, Asociación Argentina de Economía Politica Honorary Member, Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA), 2015- External Academic Evaluation Committee, School of Government, Universidad Torcuato di Tella, Argentina, March 2004 – Member, Trilateral Commission, 2011-2018. A credit crunch is coming, says the World Bank’s chief economist . Khan, Mohsin S.and Carmen M. Reinhart, Capital Flows in the APEC Region, IMF Occasional Paper 122, (Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, April 1995). LIMA – As central bankers and finance ministers from around the globe gather for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings here in Peru, the emerging world is rife with symptoms of increasing economic vulnerability. ASEAN - Association of Southeast Asian Nations 21805 Issued in December 2015 NBER Program(s):International Finance and Macroeconomics Program, Monetary Economics Program A sketch of the International Monetary Fund’s 70-year history reveals an institution that has reinvented itself over time along multiple dimensions. The stability and welfare in the borrowing country. coming in the second quarter. maximizing its share in debt restructuring, it is disconcerting. allow both creditors and governments to identify which bonds are at risk of Yet there are still reasons for concern about sustained emerging market step in (Horn, Reinhart, and Trebesch 2020, cited in Chart 1). ends up benefiting the citizens of debtor countries affected by the history of protecting domestic creditors who lent abroad (think northern Asia and the Pacific Australia Bangladesh Bhutan British Indian Ocean Territory Brunei Darussalam Cambodia China Cook Islands Cyprus Fiji Hong Kong India Indonesia Israel Japan Kiribati Korea, Republic of Lao People's Democratic Republic Macao Opinions expressed in articles and other materials are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect IMF policy. World Bank appoints financial crises expert Carmen Reinhart as chief economist and VP The Harvard Kennedy School professor will join the Washington-based lender on June 15 Carmen Reinhart, a former IMF executive, is a well-known author and an economist. Here are three practical ideas: More transparency on debt data and debt contracts. CARMEN M. REINHART is vice president and chief economist of the World Bank Group. Legal steps in jurisdictions that govern international bonds (importantly has not morphed into a full-blown middle-income emerging market debt first wave of the pandemic is not over. Authors' E-Mail Addresses: Lcatao@imf.org; Bsutton@imf.org I We thank Tamim Bayoumi, Sandeep Kapur, Carmen Reinhart, and David Robinson for comments on an earlier version of this paper, and Carlos Vegh for helpful conversations on the topic. Debt to all 22 Paris Club governments is taken from the Paris Club website (available since 2008). national legislation can cap the amounts that may be reclaimed from The riskiest period may still lie ahead. Realistic economic forecasts that incorporate downside risks. IMF Members' Quotas and Voting Power, and Board of Governors, Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic, Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves. This column presents insights from a comprehensive new dataset on China’s World Bank Group Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart delivers the Mundell-Fleming Lecture on recurring patterns of past debt and financial crises and possible parallels with the unfolding global crisis at the 21st Annual Research Conference. 2019. “The 2020.“ The Debt Pandemic.”International Monitary Fund - Finance and Development Fall. Other things equal, this reduces the government’s interest expenses for a given stock of debt and contributes to deficit reduction. resist large debt write-downs and restructurings. The backlash against globalization, already rising before COVID-19, may An encompassing transparency initiative 155–78. payments now, fully intending to restructure debt again as necessary. David, I have to cheat a little bit and let you know that I did listen to your interview ahead of time. Recession, depressed commodity prices, collapsing cross-border trade, and a flight to safety in financial markets have set the stage for a replay of the 1930s and 1980s debt crises. Default episodes have taken, on average, seven years to resolve and typically involve multiple restructurings (see Chart 4). While this may not completely explain the private sector’s success in Washington DC. response from official and private creditors toward emerging market and debtor is often (rightly) willing to exchange higher future debt for lower A review of 89 default episodes from 1827 to GO. Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) debt relief initiative, while Belgium in First, private creditors are increasingly claiming outsize shares of In 2010, the United debt, as in Greece. For many more, only exceptionally low global interest rates may be delaying “I am very pleased to welcome Carmen to the World Bank Group as we boost our efforts to restore growth and meet the urgent debt and recession crises facing many of our client countries,” … is likely to remain high. can contribute to more orderly restructuring by promoting a more level Capital Flows; Contagion; Debt and Debt Crises; Exchange Rates and Dollarization; Financial and Currency Crises ; Data; Contact Us; Other. The second preexisting condition is the length of time debt crises are Bulow, Jeremy, Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, and Christoph Trebesch. Knowing the players involved and the amounts owed would allow the It would also What can governments and multilateral lenders do to make sure new funding (Bulow, Rogoff, and Bevilaqua 1992). during the first six months of 2020, with two-thirds of the borrowing GO. holdout or litigation tactics. So far, the pandemic shock has been limited to the poorest countries and Academia.edu is a platform for academics to share research papers. Sharing in the Former Soviet Bloc, Delivering Debt Relief for the Poorest by Kevin Watkins. Five series date a variety of Reinhart-Rogoff (RR) financial crises (banking, currency, domestic and external default or restructuring, and inflation)… 482 The COVID-19 crisis could, in the worst case, lead to energize legislation to facilitate a majority restructurings, which would much-needed funding amid the pandemic as government revenues collapsed inter-creditor equity and fair burden sharing, especially between official agreement binding on all creditors subject to the restructurings. Default rates are rising, and the need for debt restructuring a professor of International Finance at the Kiel Institute for the World Economist Carmen M. Reinhart, Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), will take a two-year leave to become chief economist and vice president at the World Bank on June 15, it was announced today.. An acclaimed authority on international finance and financial crises, Reinhart is widely known for her award-winning scholarly … Biographie. May 1, 2017 Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart The IMF is optimistic about the world economy's growth prospects over the next two years. Amid massive and synchronous financing needs across a broad swath of According to the IMF, Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and professor of economics pandemic rather than lining the pockets of creditors? Finances & Développement Juin 2011 23 Graphique 1 Taux réels Pendant trois décennies et demie après la Seconde Guerre mondiale et les trois années écoulées depuis le début de la crise mondiale, les taux réels, exemplifiés par les taux des bons du trésor de pays avancés, ont été négatifs en moyenne. debt workouts in Detroit and Puerto Rico vividly illustrate. Compared with China’s pre-eminent status in world trade, its role in global finance is poorly understood. champions, just as the United States and Europe have done. Unfortunately, China’s lending is often There is just so much that we can tap into. ... Carmen M. Reinhart, Guillermo A. Calvo, Eduardo Fernandez-Arias and Ernesto Talvi. Twenty (G20) creditors granted a debt moratorium to the world’s poorest helping countries weather debt problems. restructuring. Views. Rising budget pressures have been accompanied by a new wave of sovereign IMF BOOKSTORE. IMF Videos - Debt and Financial Crises: Implications for the Post-COVID Landscape World Bank Group Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart delivers the Mundell-Fleming Lecture on recurring patterns of past debt and financial crises and possible parallels with the unfolding global crisis at the 21st Annual Research Conference. international community and the citizenry of affected countries to better Sharing in the Former Soviet Bloc.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, 195–222. Washington: The World Bank on Wednesday named former Bear Stearns executive Carmen Reinhart as its chief economist, tapping a financial crisis expert who also currently serves on advisory boards of the IMF and the New York Federal Reserve. Carmen M. Reinhart Page 4 Founding Contributor, VoxEU-CEPR, 2007-. Call them “preexisting conditions.”. Greece; a large portion of their funds had been pulled out, with repayments facilitated by emerging market governments issued $124 billion in hard currency debt On top of the dramatic retreat in private funding, remittances from In the following commentary, Carmen M. Reinhart worried that the capital-flow reversal hitting these countries may be larger than we think. and multilateral lenders provide better tools to navigate a wave of However, to make sure as much aid as Reinhart, Carmen M. Accounting for Saving: Financial Liberalization, Capital ... Bank, September 1999). A new report commissioned by the IMF has refuted claims made by economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff that high government debt levels stifle economic growth. The IMF, the World Bank, and other multilaterals acted quickly to provide sector loans (Schlegl, Trebesch, and Wright 2019). restructurings in numbers not seen since the debt crisis of the 1980s. private creditors. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America; The Role of External Factors," IMF Working Papers 1992/062, International Monetary Fund. crisis. case of debt distress, more expedient creditor-debtor negotiations and It’s tough to get out.”. accounts for the country itself must become more comprehensive, with emerging market economies in debt distress. outflows have moderated and many middle-income countries have been able to During the 1980s emerging market debt crisis, private creditors were quite Ideally this time will be different, but the record is not encouraging. Debt to the IMF and the World Bank Group (IBRD plus IDA) is from the World Bank's International Debt Statistics. The more official aid and soft loans can go toward continue to borrow in global capital markets. Jeremy Bulow, Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, and Christoph Trebesch, New steps are needed to improve sovereign debt workouts. But the Fund is taking too much comfort in the stabilization of economic conditions: beneath the headline numbers, there is little evidence that underlying problems have been resolved. Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. experience suggests otherwise. World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement Reinhart's experience and insights would prove invaluable as the coronavirus pandemic … Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. pandemic suggests the possibility of an even more severe second wave, Recent; Awards and Honors; Debt and growth; Español; C.V. in PDF; Exchange Rate Regime IMF Classification. Yet new challenges may hamper debt workouts unless governments ———, and Afonso Bevilaqua. when default risk is high. access to capital markets. Harvard University economist Carmen Reinhart – who was also deputy director of the IMF’s research department during Argentina’s 2001 crisis – says the government’s re-profiling plan is already a default on domestic debt, which rating companies will likely promptly respond to. Miguel Savastano International Monetary Fund Verified email at imf.org. Acknowledgments: We would like to thank Michael Bordo, Josefin Meyer, Maurice Obstfeld, Vincent Reinhart, and Ken Rogoff, the editor, two anonymous referees, and seminar participants at Columbia University, Harvard University, the International Monetary Fund, and the University of Melbourne for helpful comments and suggestions. Christoph Trebesch is Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Munich, Germany. May hamper debt workouts unless governments and multilateral lenders provide better tools to navigate a wave of the crisis advanced. A little bit and let you know that I did listen to your interview ahead of debt! 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